Saturday, 18 August 2007

Reagonomics and the Laffer Curve: Can you cut taxes and increase revenue?


According to legend the Laffer Curve originated in a dinner meeting and was originally drawn on the back of a napkin.

The Laffer Curve explained
The Laffer curve operates on two central premises:
  • At a 0% tax rate there is no tax revenue.
  • At a 100% tax rate nobody will be willing to give the government any money, because they will have nothing for themselves. Instead they will hide it, send it overseas or hire expensive accountants to make it disappear, or, alternatively, Nobody will bother working for money anymore and the entire economic system will collapse.
The important point to note it that somewhere in the middle there must be an optimum tax rate which is not 100%, and so in some circumstances lowering taxes will actually (counter-intuitively) raise revenues. This is "Reagonomics."

Reagonomics: Does it work?
According to Stephen Moore in the Wall Street Journal it does:

"In the 1980s, President Ronald Reagan chopped the highest personal income tax rate from the confiscatory 70% rate that he inherited when he entered office to 28% when he left office and the resulting economic burst caused federal tax receipts to almost precisely double: from $517 billion to $1,032 billion."

The alternative proposition, is that moments like this only occur when marginal tax rates are very high and that a "Laffer effect" will not be seen in present conditions, because current Marginal tax rates are low, and are thus likely lie on the upward sloping part of the Laffer curve. Indeed, this is exactly what is oserved in a study by Autan Goolsbee (1999):

"The notion that governments could raise more money by cutting rates is, indeed, a glorious idea. .. Unfortunately for all of us, the data from the historical record suggest that it is unlikely to be true at anything like today’s marginal tax rates. It seems that, for now at least, we will have to keep paying for our tax cuts the old fashioned way."

Do we still have a reason to cut tax?
We do not have to rely on Reagonomics to support cutting taxes. Taxes are a burden on individual citizens and they prevent people using thier own money as they see fit. Additionally, taxation and government spending is wasteful and can creates distortions in the econommy.

It is for this reason, and not because of a graph drawn on a napkin that I support lower taxes...

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Hey, I am checking this blog using the phone and this appears to be kind of odd. Thought you'd wish to know. This is a great write-up nevertheless, did not mess that up.

- David