How likely is World War 3?

I've just got back from teaching in The Gambia, where one inquisitive student asked me what my thoughts were on the possibility of World War 3.


I told him that in my opinion world peace relies on one crucial ingredient: Namely, the supreme military power of one state over all competitors.

The Cold War

We saw during the Cold War, that a fragile situation existed between the United States and the Soviet Union because two economic powerhouses were fighting for supremacy in a bi-polar world. Fortunately, the result was not the kind of "hot war" situation seen in 1914 and 1945, but a Cold War which gradually wore down the USSR.

Since the collapse of the USSR and the fall of the Berlin Wall, the US has been the supreme military power by a wide margin. They spend just 4% of their GDP on their military, but this expenditure ($651 trillion) is double what is spent by the entirety of the EU ($312 trillion) and almost ten times what is spent by their nearest rival, China ($70 trillion).

Should we be complacent?

I believe that the biggest threat to world peace is the rise of China. Their economy is growing much faster than the US and although this growth has slowed during the economic downturn, they have avoided recession and look set to grow by 6-7% in 2009, compared to a predicted contraction of 3.1% in the United States.

Even so. China are still a long way behind, and if we factor in the military budget of other NATO members, who would presumably ally themselves with the US in any new Cold War situation. I remain optimistic that we can look forward to peace for the foreseeable future.